FANTASY DO’S AND DON’TS

July 1, 2007

Our objective is to point out certain marginal to slightly above average players (not stars) who do particularly well or particularly poorly in given situations. This is meant to serve as a lineup decision-making guide for fantasy baseball players.

DO: Start Luis Gonzalez against left-handed pitchers who do not possess an overpowering fastball. Although the Dodgers outfielder hits from the left side, he has punished lefties such as David Wells (3 for 4, 2 HR), Barry Zito (2 for 3, 1 HR), and Chris Capuano (2 for 4, 1 double) in 2007. Gonzalez is hitting .318 and slugging .519 going back to 2006 against lefties who rely on their off-speed pitches and don’t throw hard.

DON’T: Start Padres outfielder Brian Giles against the same type of left-hander that Luis Gonzalez hammers. Giles has six extra base hits in 106 at-bats over the past two seasons against left-handed soft-throwers. He’s 0 for 11 combined against Randy Wolf, Noah Lowry, Chuck James, and Mark Hendrickson this season.

DO: Start your hard-throwing fastball pitchers against the Brewers, Padres, and Reds. Those three teams have the lowest batting average against fastballs over 92 mph this season (.209 combined). They also rank in the top 6 in the league in strikeouts per at-bat against those high octane fastballs.

 DON’T: Start your hard-throwing fastball pitchers against the Tigers, Phillies, or Angels. Those three teams have no problem with serious heat, hitting a combined .319 and striking out less than league average against fastballs over 92 mph this season.

DO: Start Angels outfielder Reggie Willits for night games. Willits is hitting .411 during evening games and ten of his twelve extra-base hits have come at night. Willits also prefers the cool evening air for running. He has fifteen stolen bases at night compared to only three during day games.

 DON’T: Start Ted Lilly at night. Lilly would probably prefer playing for the Cubs back when Wrigley Field was light-less. The Cubs starter has won only two of his eight night games this year and his ERA in night games is 3 runs higher than day games (5.74 at night, and 2.73 during the day).

DO: Start Howie Kendrick when the Angels are away from home. The second baseman enjoys life on the road -- hitting .346 and belting ten of his sixteen extra-base hits away from Anaheim.

DON’T: Start Josh Willingham when he is at home. The Marlins outfielder has struggled at Dolphin Stadium this year, hitting .197. Only 18 of Willingham’s 48 RBI’s have come in Miami, and just five of his twenty doubles have come while wearing his home whites.